Energy experts and analysts have sounded the alarm over stage 8 load-shedding, which they say could be implemented at short notice.

Eskom itself has warned South Africans to brace for higher levels of load-shedding.

System Operator Isabel Fick told media on Monday that they are working with the energy regulator to prepare load-shedding schedules beyond stage 8.

The Eskom System Operator is the entity that monitors South Africa’s grid stability and determined the level of load-shedding.

Over the weekend, it placed South Africa on stage 6 power cuts until further notice.

The move to stage 6 is concerning as there is a lower demand on the grid on weekends, and with winter approaching, demand is expected to increase.

According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), South Africa’s electricity scenario is still dire, and the country could be plunged into higher levels of load-shedding if Eskom’s diesel supplies run out.

“The domestic electricity situation remains dire with a return of (nighttime) stage 6 load-shedding over the weekend amid significant unexpected breakdowns and the need to replenish emergency generation reserves,” it said.

It should be noted that Eskom changed the load-shedding schedule late on Sunday evening. Stage 6 will remain in effect until further notice rather than just overnight.

Eskom has also subsequently assured that National Treasury is backing the loans it has taken out to buy diesel.

Fortunately, despite the rain, Eskom isn’t currently experiencing any generation issues due to wet coal.

However, the power utility is experiencing coal supply constraints at the Lethabo Power Station due to disruptions caused by heavy rain.

Last week, the National Energy Crisis Committee said the power utility’s diesel supplies are ample for the time being.

Eskom is currently running its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to negate two stages of load-shedding.

Any disruption in diesel supply could immediately cause stage 8 power cuts.

Similarly, any further breakdowns could cause load-shedding to increase as Eskom is using the bulk of its rapidly dispatchable “peaking” generating capacity.

Head of capital markets research at Intellidex Peter Attard Montalto, in January 2023, warned that South Africans should brace themselves for stage 7 load-shedding from July.

Montalto also predicted that Eskom would implement stage 6 load-shedding in February, which has now proven accurate.

In mid-January, energy expert at Hohm Energy, Matthew Cruise, said there is a relatively high risk of stage 8 load-shedding — and possibly even higher stages — being implemented from July 2023.

Cruise said there was a 50% chance that Eskom would have to implement stage 8 load-shedding as the country moves into its winter peak.

“In July, we have our winter peak demand that takes place, and demand on the grid is between 32,000 and 34,000 megawatts,” he said.

This is approximately a 4,000MW increase compared to peak demand during summer months — equivalent to four stages of load-shedding.

With South Africa currently in perpetual stage 6 load-shedding, this could translate to an increase to stage 10 if Eskom’s generation capacity doesn’t improve.

Factors that could lead to stage 10 load-shedding

Cruise told MyBroadband that several factors could contribute to the implementation of up to stage 10 load-shedding over the next few years.

These include Kusile power station’s three offline generation units, a rapidly declining energy availability factor (EAF), and grid capacity constraints.

According to Cruise, Kusile’s generation units 1, 2, and 3 will take one-and-a-half to two years to return to service, while Medupi unit 4 is only slated to return to service in September 2024.

The generation unit at Medupi suffered damage from an explosion that resulted from a volatile mix of hydrogen and air in the generator when technicians attempted to displace hydrogen to locate an external leak.

Investigations revealed that there was a deviation from the procedure during the process.

Cruise highlighted that Eskom’s EAF had rapidly dropped to below 55%, further contributing to the risk of higher stages of load-shedding.

Another significant concern is the lack of transmission capacity on the national power grid. Montalto highlighted this issue in December 2022.

“There is now no more grid access in key areas for the foreseeable future,” he said. “The implication is more load-shedding for longer than previously assumed.”

The transmission grids in the Northern, Western, and Eastern Cape are full — and will remain so until at least 2027.

This means that new solar and wind power plants slated for these regions won’t be able to connect to the grid and contribute to the national power supply.

Other factors that could contribute to stage 10 load-shedding in the coming years include:

• Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme Bid windows 5 and 6 failing;
• A lack of proper incentivisation for private power producers to supply the grid; and,
• Delays to the unbundling of Eskom and democratisation of the energy sector.

It should be noted, however, that President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke of incentives for rooftop solar during his 2023 State of the Nation address.

He said finance minister Enoch Godongwane would announce details about the tax breaks during his budget speech on Wednesday, 22 February.